What to expect as MPs return to the House of Commons for dynamic fall sitting

The fall sitting of Parliament has begun. MPs have resumed their work in the House of Commons for the first time since June under a new political dynamic and with the threat of an early general election looming overhead. 

Parliament’s return comes as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing persistent election pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party maintained a definitive lead over the Liberals in public opinion polls all summer.

Trudeau is also contending with the loss of assumed support from the NDP after Jagmeet Singh “ripped up” the two parties’ supply-and-confidence agreement, declaring a desire to spend the rest of this Parliament going vote-by-vote.

But as Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet positions his caucus to capture the balance of power, the prime minister’s minority Liberal government has political options to stay afloat. But for how long remains the central question.

Coming out of last week’s Liberal caucus retreat, Trudeau insisted that despite chatter about the viability of his continued leadership, Liberals are fixated on “putting the strongest balance sheet in the G7 in service of Canadians.”

Government House Leader Karina Gould started Monday off by debuting a new strategy that emerged from the Liberal caucus retreat: sharpening their attacks on Poilievre.

She vowed Liberals will be using the weeks ahead to stand up for Canadians and “push back” on Conservative “bullying tactics” and “antics.”

“We’re a serious party that’s taking the business of government seriously,” she said.

The Liberals then presented a new package of mortgage reforms, which Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland touted as the “boldest” measures to unlock homeownership for more Canadians. 

Poilievre convened his caucus for a quick strategy session in Ottawa on Sunday, where he said Conservatives will stay focused on the carbon tax and the economy. 

Not missing a beat in getting back to grilling the government, Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer on Monday pushed for the prime minister to table a series of documents connected to a Sustainable Development Technology Canada program they’re calling a “green slush fund.”

The Conservatives are giving Trudeau one week to turn materials over or they say “further measures will be taken.”

Last week in Montreal, Singh said New Democrats are returning to Parliament focused on restoring “hope” for Canadians and trying to leverage the new minority dynamics for fresh progressive policy gains.

Backed by members of his caucus, on Monday Singh faced a barrage of questions from reporters about what the NDP’s voting intentions will be this fall. As has been the case since he pulled the plug on the two-party pact, the top New Democrat was noncommittal.

“Every motion that comes before us, we’ll take a look at it and we’ll make a determination based on what’s in the best interest of Canadians,” Singh said.

Elaborating on their audition as the Liberals’ new dance partner, Blanchet and key members of his House leadership team set up the sitting from Quebec’s perspective, stating the Bloc will not make voting decisions based on what will topple or prop-up the government, but rather based on what’s best for their province.

“It’s possible this legislature sees its remaining days counted by just a number of weeks,” Blanchet said. “So, we don’t have much time, neither the government nor us, to pass laws.”

When asked whether the Liberals could make any promises to secure the Bloc’s vote, Blanchet said “no.”

Blanchet added that he’s “as hurried and impatient as anybody to go into an election,” as his party’s numbers “seem pretty good.”

“I invite the government not to limit itself to inviting us to coffee next week to talk about the weather,” he added. “I want concrete, tangible, and rapid.”

At the same time, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May held a press conference outlining her party’s priorities will be tackling climate change, fixing the disability benefit, addressing pressing pubic safety concerns, and improving housing affordability.

May also said she doesn’t think there should be an early election this fall. But, when it comes to non-confidence motions, she wants to read them as they come before taking a stance.

“We are determined to hold this government accountable and push for meaningful action on the issues that matter most to Canadians,” May said. 

On the Commons’ agenda Monday is debate on Bill C-71, An Act to amend the Citizenship Act, which proposes changes to Canadian citizenship rules for those born abroad.

Tied to a Supreme Court ruling, this legislation was tabled in May but didn’t advance before MPs hit the barbecue circuit. Over the summer, the federal government was granted an extension until December to fix the unconstitutional “lost Canadians” law.

Around 2:15 p.m. EDT party leaders will be back in the chamber together for the first time in nearly three months for the first question period of the fall sitting.

There, the stage is set for an hour of exchanging barbs and probing for answers about the hottest issues of the last few months.

With renewed attention on the NDP’s murky stance on the consumer carbon tax, the Liberals’ eyeing immigration level limits, and the Conservatives continued resistance to sharing what social programs they’d cut to “fix” the budget, there will be lots for the leaders to dig into.

The largest looming debate will come when Poilievre presents his promised motion of non-confidence in the prime minister.

While the Official Opposition leader has promised to advance a motion to defeat the Trudeau minority at his first opportunity, the government sets the schedule for when opposition days occur and the Liberals are not expected to offer up any day the first week back for this procedural drama to unfold.

Gould, however, has signalled MPs won’t have to wait too long.

In order to pass, the majority of the current 334 MPs would need to vote to say they no longer have confidence in Trudeau.

Right now the Liberals hold 154 seats, the Conservatives have 119, there are 32 Bloc MPs, 24 New Democrats, and two Green MPs. There are also three Independents.

While parliamentarians settle back in to the routine of debating and legislating, campaign offices in LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, Que., and Elmwood-Transcona, Man., are making last-minute get-out-the-vote efforts.

Two seats in the House of Commons are up for grabs Monday as voters in these ridings go to the polls in a pair of byelections that have been framed as key tests for Trudeau and others.

This is a developing story, check back for updates… 

With files from CTV News’ Spencer Van Dyk